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HRA 2012 Cox Plate breakdown


*** HRA TIPS AND BEST BETS for this weekends racing ***


2012 COX PLATE BREAKDOWN:

Do I listen to my head, or do I listen to my heart? The age old question…

Look I want to start off this brief breakdown by saying that I’m potting the 3 year olds. That’s no doubt going to polarize and fire up a lot of people; but i don’t want to see ANY chinks in their armour if I’m going to entertain a 3yo winning a Cox Plate. And I see chinks, and history says no.

1 – SHOOT OUT ($21)
The best e/w bet of the race at $21. Big query whether he runs a strong enough 2000m to compete in a Cox Plate?

2 – SINCERO ($34)
Talented horse, but he’s no 2000m group 1 WFA horse. Best over 1400-1600m, and will be found out when they turn up the heat 800m out.

3 – GLASS HARMONIUM ($51)
Not a winning chance, but he will be having a massive influence on the race according to the speed map. Will he jump this time? Will he lead? Will he play up? If he behaves and jumps well, you’ll get a great sight, and the $12 a place is worth a small wager.

4 – GREEN MOON ($5)
Is as honest and consistent as they come and never runs a bad race. My head tells me this bloke should be clear favourite. Only knock on him is he is coming out of set weights and penalties races, and the form has hardly been franked since (Happy Trails, December Draw, Rekindled Interest, Seville?) He will be turning up the heat about 800-1000m out with a sustrained run, and will take the sprint out of plenty of other runners who are a query over the distance.

5 – REKINDLED INTEREST ($26)
Isn’t going as good as he was last preperation in our opinion, and he would need to be to win this. Will get a terrible run from the 1 gate. $26 is unders.

6 – LINTON ($81)
Terribly outclassed here and he’ll be a spectator.

7 – HAPPY TRAILS ($51)
We’ve already seen his best this preperation and he’s on the decline. Was given the perfect run last start (over 2000m) and was entitled to perform better. Can’t honestly entertain.

8 – ETHIOPIA ($21)
Third up from a spell heading into a Cox Plate, in only his 7th start. We havn’t gotten to the bottom of this bloke yet, but he won’t be holding any of ours at this stage of his career with R McLeod aboard.

9 – OCEAN PARK ($7)
A classy animal who is super consistent, with a big race jockey aboard. Has the speed and ability to sit just off them and have no doubt he’ll be looking the winner at some stage in the straight. A slight knock on the horses he’s been beaten the 3 races this prep, all by under a length.

10 – MORE JOYOUS ($10)
The best horse in the race in our opinion, and our heart wants to see her win. Has different formlines which we LOVE. Her run in the Toorak was enormous with the 60kg. Won’t get the sit and sprint affair she loves so much, but she has CLASS, a master trainer and Nash aboard. Will go very close.

11 – SOUTHERN SPEED ($41)
She’s not one of ours, and we can’t see her being competitive in this.

12 – PIERRO ($3.8)
Doesn’t deserve to be the favourite in our opinion. Was a great run last start even though he was beaten… but it reeks of a ‘gutbuster’. To entertain a 3yo in the Cox Plate I don’t want to see any glitches, ESPECIALLY at $3.80 No thanks.

13 – ALL TOO HARD ($9)
Due to his racing style he won’t be suited by the track and draw. Will be well back (potentially on the rails), and the race will be over before he even gets going. Does he even run 2000m? Far too many queries to serously consider.

14 – PROISIR ($9)
A 3yo in it’s FIRST PREP and 5th start winning a Cox Plate? Doubt it. It would have to be very, very special. Has only raced 1 good horse in its career, and it was beaten.

VERDICT:

#10 MORE JOYOUS at $10/$3 all day!
She’ll be looking the winner at some stage in the straight, and i’ll have the whip in hand riding her home!

2nd – Green Moon.
3rd – Ocean Park.

MORE JOYOUS - Trained by Gai Waterhouse.

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